Brewing Resilience: Predicting Coffee Berry Borer Outbreaks Before They Strike

Coffee farmers know the heartbreak of finding perfectly ripened cherries riddled with holes. The coffee berry borer can obliterate up to 80 percent of a yield often before anyone even knows it’s there.

Climate change is turning up the heat on this tiny pest. Warmer nights and shifting rainfall make infestations harder to spot and control. By the time you see the damage, your harvest is already on the line.  

Why Waiting to React Isn’t Enough

- Outbreaks move faster in rising temperatures  

- Traditional scouting misses early infestations  

- Chemical controls become less effective when pests spread  


Every season without an early warning is a gamble between a good harvest and devastating loss.


A New Chapter: Early Warning Powered by Kenyan Farmers


Imagine getting an alert on your phone the moment conditions favor an outbreak—before the borer ever lands on your farm. That’s exactly what our team built alongside farmers and partners through the PRISE project.


We gathered real-time data from smallholders across Kirinyaga, Murang’a, and Nyeri counties to train a predictive model honed for Kenya’s highlands.


How It Works


1. Data Collection  

   We equip farmers with simple tools to log temperature, humidity, and trap counts.  


2. Machine Learning  

   Our model analyzes patterns in weather and pest activity to forecast risk zones.  


3. Location-Specific Alerts  

   When thresholds are met, farmers receive SMS or WhatsApp messages with tailored guidance.  


4. Actionable Advice  

   Each alert comes with clear steps whether it’s checking specific blocks, tightening sanitation, or the ideal timing for biocontrol releases.


Real Impact in the Field


- Farmers report spotting early signs 10 days sooner on average  

- Targeted actions reduced infestation levels by up to 60 percent  

- Communities now share best practices through peer networks  


This system doesn’t just warn it empowers each farmer to become their own pest-management expert.


Join the Movement

Whether you’re a grower, agritech partner, or a lover of great coffee, there’s a role for you:

- Share feedback to refine our alerts  

- Help expand data collection into new regions  

- Sponsor training workshops for next season  


Together, we can protect harvests, stabilize incomes, and ensure every cup tells a story of resilience.

Coffee is more than a crop it’s a livelihood, a culture, a connection. Let’s make sure nothing stands between Kenyan farmers and their best harvest yet. Sign up today to be the first to receive outbreak alerts and join our growing network of climate-smart producers.

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